Exit polls show historic AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt
Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany has more than doubled its vote share in the eastern state, but projections leave it short of a clear parliamentary majority.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has recorded a historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt, with exit polls placing the party at about 44% of the vote in Sunday’s state election.
The projections mark the AfD’s strongest result in a German state and a sharp rise from the 20.8% it secured there in 2021. However, the available figures did not show the party winning an outright majority of seats, leaving its path to government uncertain.
CDU suffers heavy losses
Reuters reported that the ARD broadcaster’s exit poll put the AfD on 44.5%, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union fell to 18.5%. The CDU won 37.1% in 2021 and has governed Saxony-Anhalt continuously since 2002.
The Associated Press said separate ARD and ZDF projections placed the AfD at roughly 44%, with the CDU a distant second. The Left Party was projected at about 9%, while the Social Democrats and Greens appeared likely to remain in the legislature.
The final allocation of seats depends partly on whether smaller parties cross the 5% threshold. That detail is crucial because parties falling below the threshold can alter the parliamentary arithmetic even when the leading party’s vote share remains below 50%.
Winning does not guarantee power
Mainstream German parties have ruled out governing with the AfD under the political “firewall” intended to prevent far-right participation in government. Unless the AfD obtains a majority of seats, other parties could still attempt to assemble a coalition that excludes it.
AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund described the result as historic. CDU officials acknowledged a severe setback. The result is also a national blow to Merz, whose government has struggled with economic weakness and declining voter confidence.
The figures remain exit-poll projections rather than certified final results. Whether the AfD can form Germany’s first far-right state government since the Second World War will depend on the completed count and subsequent coalition negotiations.
Illustration: AI-generated, non-documentary editorial artwork showing a ballot box and Saxony-Anhalt map motif.
Reporting and verification: Source names linked directly to the principal primary and independent reports.
